The Forecast Gap
Remarkable advances in the technology of design and visualization have allowed apparel designers, brands and product developers to reduce the time required to visualize and prepare a new apparel design or decoration. However, these advances even though they are portrayed as reducing time-to-market really only reduce time to production. Coloring/printing the fabric, the cutting, sewing and transportation/distribution of product still creates a huge time gap between the initial concept and the presentation of the product for consumer sale. Decisions about color and print that occur this far in advance represent the huge risk that a market shift will cause a volume stocking order to go mostly unsold at retail price. Unfortunately, that retail price is what planning and profits are often based on. This gap in time and money is what we call the “forecast gap”. Placing an integrated micro-factory directly in the supply chain as a replenishment source after a minimal initial stocking order can reduce risk and in fact guarantee both profits and appropriate product stocking. Using a micro-factory for direct point-of-sale replenishment allows each retailer or online site in the distribution system to match their product availability with local demand. This means that on hand inventory can be calibrated to avoid inventory clearances but still provide accurate product availability.
Placing the integrated micro-factory in position between the general production sources and the consumer creates a level of sourcing agility that allows merchandising to react to out of stock situations by size, gender or color and to avoid overstock clearances by location. For the highest efficient use of the integrated micro-factory in a replenishment role, the factory (which produces no pollution) should be placed in or near the appropriate distribution center. It is important to remember that the physical space taken up by the factory can be designed to match the space that was previously taken up by the physical inventory. As a rule of thumb, hundred thousand square foot of inventory storage equals about 1 TB of space in the virtual inventory. It is also important to remember that the cost of the micro-factory is probably less than the initial stocking cost and discount losses on product in a period of less than a year. So, if you’re going to employ and integrated micro-factory to fill the forecast gap the sourcing paradigm for some products may have to change from forecasting to demand sourcing.
The key ingredients of demand sourcing are: product profit index, risk assessment, real-time POS replenishment and negotiating a flexible style contract. Positive real-time control of on-hand inventory by linking it directly to the demand driven Micro-Factory is the fundamental feature of demand sourcing. In order to construct and demand sourcing infrastructure the selling entity whether it is retail or e-tail needs to complete three basic pre-activation tasks.
Establish real time profit risk analysis tools
ü Profit velocity index (PVI): point score based on gross profit times turns per week
ü Profit Lifecycle track: Average selling price per unit sold vs total units contracted plotted by week.
Establish period sales production for high-risk silhouettes
ü Build or source an Integrated Micro-Factory that can provide no minimum replenishment of targeted silhouettes with variable decoration on demand.
ü Negotiate a “Style Contract” for the on demand delivery of the total period volume of the targeted silhouette based on SKU’s from the Virtual Inventory. Establish a Virtual Inventory (VI)
ü Using high definition visual design software build a silhouette construction and decoration TekPak inventory for the choices available in store and online for the SKU’s. (Note: 10,000 different decoration VI SKU’s will consume less than a TB of digital storage vs over 100,000 sq. ft. of physical SKU inventory warehouse space.)
ü Test the selected greige fabric fit pattern construction of the offered sizes and/or shapes of the physical production silhouette.
ü Install the software, communication and transportation links to facilitate POS based product lifecycle replenishment. Profit Velocity Index (PVI)
Profit Velocity Index (PVI)
Two of the newest elements in creating a demand-sourcing paradigm are the Profit Velocity Index (PVI) and the flexible Style Contract. The PVI is a competitive point index between products, which determines both the replenishment level, and ultimately SKU stocking life. In merchandising whether online or in-store the velocity of product movement is the key ingredient in determining on-hand inventory, product lifecycle and ultimately product profitability. The PVI is calculated by simply multiplying the concurrent percentage of gross profit times the turns of on-hand inventory over the period of the week. Comparing the PVI to the scores of other like product or products in a particular size or lifestyle area will determine the risk and ultimately the level of replenishment required to realize the highest possible profit levels from that particular SKU. When the PVI for a particular product dips below a predetermined minimum score the product is replaced or discontinued.
The flexible Style Contract works directly with a progression of products that are driven by the replenishment lifecycle described by the PVI. The flexible Style Contract depends on digital coloration or printing which allows the integrated micro-factory to change color and/or decoration without any additional cost. In its simplest form the flexible style contract is a total volume of a particular silhouette, regardless of color or print, the brand, the retailer or the e-tailer is contracting for over a specific period of time. Once the contract is in place the buyer can determine a progression of decorations based on a real time evaluation of current trends. Whenever a product is determined by the PVI to be ready for replacement, the micro-factory moves to the next decoration or colors in the progressive list and replaces the product in the store that requires the new product. This allows the buyer and the merchandisers to work together to offer the appropriate product with the maximum PVI store by store within the distribution area. In the case of online since the product may not be made in the micro factory until after it is been purchased all of the products in the priority list of decorations can be displayed for sale since they only reside in the virtual inventory.
Where can brands and retailers learn more?
All of these applications technologies and merchandising tools will be on display and detailed in the Fashion Technology section of SOURCING at MAGIC in the unified MAGIG show August 11-14 in Las Vegas.